Small Craft Advisory 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE OCT 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN ALASKA THE LAST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) IS MOVING OVER THE
COPPER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY THIS EVENING. A 980 MB
LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 60/180 WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
PRIBILOFS FROM THE WEST AS OF 20Z. THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
BERING STRAIT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY EARLY WED. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY
MOVES EAST TO THE PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A MAJOR
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG ALONG 160W AS PER ALL THE MODELS.

CONFIDENCE IS DIMINISHED BEYOND 36 HOURS IN THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS
COME UP WITH OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ETA MODEL
KEEPS A STORM IN THE GULF NORTH. THE GFS-190 KEEPS THE SAME STORM
CENTER ALONG 50N AROUND 18Z THU. SURPRIZE THE AK-ETA-12 CAME IN AT
18Z WITH NEARLY THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE 12Z GFS-190 WHICH IS CLOSER
TO WHAT THE MID SHIFT USED. ALL FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF WITH LESS PRECIP AND WIND FOR THE INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN
DOMAIN. OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA A SURFACE RIDGE RESULTS BEHIND
THE STORM ON THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS TO BE ISSUED.
         GALES 130 132 138 140 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC OCT 05