Small Craft Advisory 828, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS..A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SPIN ITSELF OUT EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE TODAY. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY AS WELL. A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BE STEERED TO THE EAST BY A STRONG 80 KT JET.

FORECAST..IN THE ALEUTIANS EXPECT THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG SURFACE LOW. ZONE 181 WILL SEE GUSTS TO 80
MPH WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN CHANNELED TERRAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR THE COLD BAY ZONE EFFECTIVE TONIGHT. STORMS IN THE MARINES FROM
170 TO 150 THROUGH SAT. WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THIS SYSTEM
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OF THE LIQUID
VARIETY WITH SNOW FALLING ONLY AT MUCH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES WEST OF BETHEL. FOG AND STRATUS ARE ALSO STRONG
PROBABILITIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
BETWEEN CLOUD BREAKS AND SHOWERS. THIS HOLDS TRUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AS WELL BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW
TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THEN BUT IT SHOULD STILL BRIEFLY DRAW SOME
WARMER AIR INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BEFORE THE COLD TAKES HOLD ONCE
MORE BY MID WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED..ANOTHER STORM STRENGTH LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
OVER THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES NUNIVAK ISLAND SUN
NIGHT. AN EVEN DEEPER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR BRISTOL BAY BY MID WEEK.
BOTH LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIP TO MOST OF
MAINLAND AK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL AS
EACH OF THESE LOWS MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN AK COAST. COASTAL FLOODING
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ZONE 161 BY LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE
LOW MAINTAINS ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH AS FORECAST. BUT THIS IS QUITE A
BIT IN THE FUTURE AND SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS MODEL CORRECTIONS BY THEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181
MARINE...STORMS 150 155 170 171
         GALES 132 138 160 165 172 175 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW OCT 05