Small Craft Advisory 823, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS/UMKET MODEL INITIALIZATION LOOK BEST AS WELL AS
FORECAST TRENDS. ETA MODEL MSL PRESSURE DID A POOR JOB ON WEAKENING
LOW OVER THE NE GULF. GFS/ETA 850 MB TEMP INITIALIZATIONS LOOK OK.

500 MB CENTER OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MOVES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR FRI AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
MORNING MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING. SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU AFTERNOON AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER THU
NIGHT.

GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND FORECAST AREAS UNTIL PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGHS. ARCTIC FRONT
HAS PUSHED EAST TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND...BUT HAS HUNG UP ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. LOW CENTER ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW
LIKELY TO HOLD BACK IN COLD AIR NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT CENTER TO HOLD POSITION THROUGH THRU AFTERNOON...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH. WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO THE NW BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AFTERNOON. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SPREADS TO SW ALASKA THU AND THU
NIGHT..SO PROB WILL SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.

DEVELOPING WESTPAC CENTER NEAR 35N 160E THIS MORNING EVIDENT OF BY
ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUD BAND ALONG FRONT. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS INVOLVED. GFS/UKMET MOVEMENT LOOK BEST. GFS
TAKES CENTER TO 330 NM SOUTH OF PADU FRI AFTERNOON AND DROPS IT TO
AROUND 960 MB. THIS AT THIS POINT SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT CENTER TO
BRING STORMS TO EASTERN ALEUTAINS FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES AREA 130

RMC OCT 05