Small Craft Advisory 801, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU OCT 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE YUKON THIS
MORNING...WITH A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE PRIBILOFS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE AKPEN...AND SHEMYA. A STRONG
ZONAL JET PERSISTS BETWEEN 45 N AND 50 N ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC.
AT THE SURFACE A DECAYING LOW IS SPREADING A BAND OF PRECIP TOWARD
THE NORTH GULF COAST...AND A LOW WITH FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW WELL SOUTH OF ADAK.

ETA/NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE SPEED AND DETAILS OF
FEATURES PROGRESSING EAST IN THE SHORT TERM...SO FORECASTS LEAN
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION BEFORE BLENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN THE MID-RANGE.

IN THE EAST...THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS AS THE GULF LOW
SLOWLY WEAKENS. EXPECT A FAIRLY DRY NIGHT BEFORE THE BERING FRONT
ARRIVES FRI. THIS WILL SET UP A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT WHEN THE SECOND GULF LOW WEAKENS.

IN THE WEST...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME WIND...AND ARRIVE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THIS AREA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW
LINGERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FALL
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SHEMYA
BY SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...

IN THE EAST...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET TURNS THE CORNER INTO THE
GULF SAT NIGHT AND BRINGS RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL WIND TO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MON BEFORE MOVING INLAND. ALTHOUGH A
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...IT APPEARS
THAT MOST FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE LATER MON AND LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED INLAND. ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN WILL BRING YET ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE GULF TUE.

IN THE WEST...ANOTHER KAMCHATKA LOW REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN
NIGHT AND RACES ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO THE AKPEN ON TUE. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL WIND AND RAIN TO THE CHAIN
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 170 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 05