Small Craft Advisory 790, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN THIS MORNING WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. A RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE BERING AND A CUT-OFF LOW WELL SOUTH OF ADAK. AT THE SURFACE
AN ELONGATED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF WHICH EXTENDS
TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING...AND A LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF ADAK. THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK IS
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THOSE AREAS TODAY. CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS BEFORE SLOW
CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

THE BIG PLAYER IS THAT LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. IT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING GALES AND SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY REACH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS MON NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE TWO FRONTS WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS...ACROSS THE AKPEN INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. SMALL CRAFT AND GALES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND AKPEN AND ALEUTIANS INTO WED...WHEN THE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES
INTO A GULF LOW. IN THE EAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE WEST YET ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONT WILL BRING WIND AND SHOWERS AS IT TRACKS FROM KAMCHATKA TO
THE AKPEN WED THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 170 171 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 05