Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SAT JAN 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...NCEP/UKMET PATTERNS SIMILAR AND FORECAST TRENDS REASONABLE.
CENTER OVER THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TENDS TO
LOSE ITS IDENTITY. RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LONG WAVE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/NW PACIFIC AND SHIFTS EAST. BY
MON...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 5390M CENTER OVER THE ANADYR GULF
TO THE PANHANDLE. LONG WAVE EXTENDS FROM 4910M CENTER OVER NE RUSSIA
TO A 4980M CENTER NEAR 46N 172E THIS MORNING. NORTHERN CENTER MOVES
TO OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK MON AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN CENTER INTENSIFIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES QSTNRY NEAR 50N 174E
MON. TROUGH AXIS ELONGATES EAST FROM THIS CENTER AND EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE U.S. PACIFIC SEABOARD.

.SURFACE...THE GFS/UKMET MODELS INITIALIZED THE BEST ON 970 MB CENTER
SE OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING. SAT PIC INDICATES THAT STACKED
CENTER IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND BECOMING QSTNRY. CENTER SHOULD HOLD
QSTNRY NEAR KODIAK THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. FORECAST PACKAGES IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN WILL
REFLECT THE ETA/MESO PRESSURE PATTERN WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE GFS. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OVER THE
NORTH GULF IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST AND SE
EXPOSURES OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. EXPECT AS CENTER  WEAKENS AND MID
LEVEL SLOWS SHIFT SOUTHEAST THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE MORE
HEADWAY(ALTHOUGH WEAK) INTO INLAND AREAS.

LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
AGAIN...POSIT AND INTENSITY BASED ON SAT IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS.
SO FAR GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT MAIN 950S CENTER TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 950 MB EARLY SUN AM AS IT MOVES NEAR 48N 180. SEONDARY CENTER
ALREADY VISIBLE NORTH OF THIS CENTER MOVES TO NEAR SHEMYA SUN AM.
THESE CENTERS HOLD NEAR THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH SOME
CONSOLIDATION AND WEAKENING INTO MON. TRIPLE POINT LOW...LOCATED NEAR
38N 169W AT 20Z TODAY...WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE 970S AND MOVE TO NEAR
PADU MON AM. GENERAL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO ELONGATE EAST AS STRONG
EASTERLY JET ALOFT KICK OFF CENTERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
EAST TO SE GALE/STORM FORCE WINDS AS FRONTAL BROUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN OVER EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST UPDATE.

RMC JAN 05