Small Craft Advisory 774, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON SEP 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS DIFFER. ETA INITIALIZATION AND 12
HR FORECAST LOOKS MOST REASONABLE.

.UPPER 970S MB LOW SOUTH OF WESTERN AK PEN LOOKS TO BE HANDLED BEST
BY ETA MODEL. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CENTER ROTATING NW
AROUND OLD 980S MB LOW TO SW. REASONING IS THAT MEAN POSITION OF
CENTERS WILL HOLD TOWARD THE WESTERN AK PEN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 58N
156W THIS AFTERNOON IS MOST CONCERN. EXPECT CENTER WILL TRACK TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
TONIGHT THEN INLAND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG WINDS LIKELY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY THESE AREAS AS WELL AS
NORTH GULF WATERS. HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS NORTH GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON UNTIL FRONT PUSHES
INLAND. PRECIPITATION PATTERN TYPICAL WITH MOST ALONG E-SE EXPOSURES
AND MINIMAL TO LESS OF TERRAIN.

NW GALES WINDS DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COMPLEX WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 AND 135. HIGH WIND WARNING 171 AND 125.
MARINE...SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

RMC SEP 05