Small Craft Advisory 767, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...NCEP MODEL INITIALIZATONS REASONABLE. GENERAL SYNOPTIC
TRENDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE. THE GFS/UKMET BETTER
OF SOLUTIONS WITH GFS BEING USED FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.EAST...WELL DEFINED FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WENT THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
OVERNIGHT IS ALREADY IN WESTERN CANADA. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON
BACKSIDE ARE PRODUCING BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER AREA
WITH RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT. BRUNT OF
PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED...HOWEVER...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STREAMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WHICH RESPONDED TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CRESTING THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING STORM MOVES SW OF KODIAK MON AND
TO NEAR PAJC MON NIGHT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
E-SE WINDS TO GULF AND COASTAL LOCALS. ALSO EXPECT RAIN PATTERN WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL WITH MUCH BEING CAUGHT ON THE COASTS AND SE EXPOSURES
WITH SHADOW OVER THE TO LEE OF MOUNTAINS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE WEAKENS AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY.
SW FLOW FLOW WILL HOLD IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN/MON DROPS INTO THE LOWER 980S NEAR
UNALASKA LATE MON AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST MARINE PACKAGE.

RMC SEP 05