Small Craft Advisory 766, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...WE ARE CURRENTLY IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
JAPAN DUE EAST TO 45N 170W WHERE IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AND ENTERS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS SECTION OF THE JET WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE JET WILL
REMAIN IN THE SAME LOCATION AND STRENGTHEN TO OVER 150 KTS AT IT
MAXIMUM SPEED. THE JET STREAM WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THIS PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENABLE A LOW TO FORM SOUTH OF ATTU
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 990 MB AS IT MOVE TO
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY.
NORTH OF THE JET STREAM RESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STROM BERING SEA STORM THAT BROUGHT COASTAL
FLOODING THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND NORTON SOUND THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THIS LOW HAS ENTRAINED A LARGE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INTO IT FROM
EASTERN RUSSIA. THIS AIR IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF WARM AIR ENTERS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE AFORE MENTIONED LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN BY TUESDAY AS A PUSH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST FEED INTO IT AT THAT TIME. COMBINE THAT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE JET STREAM OVER IT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP ABOUT
20 TO 25 MB BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FOCUS OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 138 140 141 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05