Small Craft Advisory 757, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE MESO-ETA AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
THOUGH BOTH HAVE STRENGTHENED THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT.

UPPER AIR...
THE 500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE FEATURES TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND CENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF, SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT
THEN WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE
THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEAT 3 DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA BECOME SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS A SERIES OF
STRONG WEATHER FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OLD LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT WILL EXIT
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE AK PENINSULA, BRISTOL BAY AND Y-K DELTA THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FRONT WAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR COLD BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
NORTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RE-ENERGIZED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH OF THE WAVE WILL LIE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
MARINE...GALES 130, 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 172,
               175, 176, 179, 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 05