Small Craft Advisory 754, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 211100
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 986 LOW 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. A 993 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KISKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES TO 968 MB AS IT MOVES OVER ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE SEP 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...FALL IS IN FULL SWING OVER THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
STRONG LOWS IS SET TO BLAST THROUGH THE BERING SEA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE FIRST LOW IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF ATTU AROUND 988 MB. IT WILL MOVE
JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
THE SECOND...AND MORE POWERFUL...LOW DEVELOPS NEAR ATTU WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 968 MB
THURSDAY AS IT REACHES ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 250 MB JET STRETCHES OF NORTHERN JAPAN UP TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE IT REACHES A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 135 KNOTS.
THE JET THEN WEAKENS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS JET WILL FEED THE DEVELOPING LOW AND HELP PUSH IT
BELOW 970 MB. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS A LOT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKS FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT OF THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY COME FROM THE STORM SURGE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA OFF THE BERING SEA. THERE WILL BE
TWO DISTINCT SURGES. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE SWELL FROM THE FIRST LOW REACHES THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
NORTON SOUND. A SECOND...AND LARGER..SURGE WILL COME TO THESE SAME
AREA THURSDAY AS THE SECOND LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE BERING SEA. BY
THURSDAY THE BERING SEA WILL NOT ONLY HAVE A STRONG LOW IN IT TO
GENERATE A WAVES BUT IT WILL HAVE A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH PERSISTANT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER IT TO ASSIST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE.

FROM THE 12Z RUN THIS MORNING THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE LOWS. THE ONLY
CONCERN IT THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST DEPTH OVER THE LAST THREE
RUNS. THERE WAS A 10 TO 12 MB DEEPENING OF THURSDAYS LOW BETWEEN
RUNS YESTERDAY, BUT THIS MORNINGS RUN PUTS THE DEPTH RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. SINCE THE MOVEMENT HAS REMAINED GOOD I
AM WILLING TO ACCEPT THE AVERAGED DEPTH ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z RUN AND
BELIEVE IT WILL BE IN THE BALLPARK.
THE RENEGADE MODEL IS THE UKMET MODEL THAT WANTS TO SPLIT THE LARGE
LOW INTO TWO SMALLER LOWS THURSDAY. THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AS
THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO SPLIT THE LOW AND DYNAMICS INDICATE
THAT IT WILL STAY AS ONE LOW DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05