Small Craft Advisory 749, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 182309
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALASKA TUE. A 1002 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 480 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AND STRENGTHEN TO 993
MB MON NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW NORTH OF JAPAN WILL MOVE 180 NM NORTHWEST
OF SHEMYA AND STRENGTHEN TO 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-191400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-191400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-191400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT SEP 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. STRONG LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR EXIT REGION OF 150 KT JET
AND GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION. COLD POCKET WITH LOW ALSO ADDING TO
DEEPENING OF LOW THIS MORNING. OLD UPPER LEVEL PARENT LOW NEAR SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW STACKED UNDERNEATH. THE JET TO
RACE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT PULLING SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THE LOW
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE GULF WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
JUST SOUTH OF IT AND GALES WRINGING IT. THE LOW FILLS AS THE JET
PUSHES INLAND FASTER THAN THE SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION...THE AIR
MODERATES WITH THE LOW DRAINING ENERGY FROM THE LOW. PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WITH THE LOW. AIR MASS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS MORE PREVALENT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND BERING SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIANS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXIST THERE AS WELL.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD TROUGH REIGNS OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TO THE GULF. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE LAND
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA...MAINLAND MOUNTAINS...AND
BERING SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

ANOTHER LOW PUSHES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY FORCING THE RIDGE
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AS THIS SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA...THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND IS
REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. WHEN THIS LOW PUSHES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...A FRONT WILL WORK TO THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND
ACROSS THE MAINLAND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WITH A 150 KT JET. THIS WILL
DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO PUSH MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AKPEN THURSDAY AND INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND
TOWARD THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN SEP 05