Small Craft Advisory 732, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND A LOW IN THE BERING SEA ARE DICTATING THE WEATHER
OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW IN THE BERING SEA IN
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND PART OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AROUND 990 MB BUT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IN STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 970
MB AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS LOW WILL BE A STRONG WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIBILOFS
WILL ALSO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AS IT RIPS THROUGH THERE
TOMORROW AS WELL. PRIBILOFS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE AWARE OF A POSSIBLE
DOUBLE DOSE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS STRONG WINDS HITTING THAT
AREA FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW.

BOTH ETA AND GFS MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND HAVE THE SAME BASIC IDEA
FOR THESE SYSTEMS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS IN THE DEVELOPING LOW THAT
ENTERS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH AND THE WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE MORE REASONABLE.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW RUNS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND LATE THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE IT
FORMING BUT THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN ITS EXACT LOCATION AS WELL AS
WITH ITS INTENSITY. THESE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE A BIT OF IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY IMPACT ANCHORAGE AS THE STRENGTH THIS TRIPLE
POINT WILL IMPACT THE WINDS AND RAIN IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER THE TRIPLE POINT THE WEAKER THE WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05