Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST THU JAN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...COLD AIR FROM THE POLE PUSH SOUTH AND ENHANCES BERING SEA
TROUGH FRI/SAT. WEAK CENTER FROM FROM OVER JAPAN THU NIGHT
INTENSIFIES TO 4910M NEAR 45N 173E AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH LONG
WAVE SAT MORNING. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AK PEN AND
BRISTOL BAY. A CENTER FORMS IN THE THROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK SAT MORNING.

SURFACE.
MODEL PRESSURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WERE SOMEWHAT UNDERDONE IN THE WESTERN
GULF/BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING...BUT REASONABLE ELSEWHERE.
980S SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WAS NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN COOK INLET. LOW HAS BEEN MOVING E-NE AND WEAKENING...BUT
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE IN THE WIND FIELDS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL/BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING
THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTH GULF/KENAI PEN SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW OVER THE GULF BACKS EAST.
DEVELOPING LOW IN COMPLEX SOUTH OF 50N AND BETWEEN 155-145W MOVES TO
54N 150W WITH A PRESSURE IN THE MID 960S FRI AFTERNOON. CENTER SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND CONTINUES SLOWER TRACK NORTH. EXPECT GALES TO POSSIBLE
STORMS SAT TO GULF COASTAL MARINES AS FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES NORTH.

.ALU...WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL PROB SPREAD TO THE
DELTA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN FRI. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
STORM APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. DEVELOPING STORM CENTER NEAR
JAPAN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO 44N 173E WITH A PRESSURE IN THE LOWER
950S. EXPECT GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH
AND NORTHERLY STORMS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW CENTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT MARINE PACKAGES.

RMC JAN 05