Small Craft Advisory 657, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 221154
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL DEEPEN TO 984 MB AND MOVE
MOVE TO 200NM SOUTHWEST OF BETHEL TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-230200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO W 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-230200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO W 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-230200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON AUG 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN AUG 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE EASTERN BERING.  300MB FLOW SHOWS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE PFJ IS CROSSING THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST...THIS LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW WILL MOVE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE STATE VERY QUICKLY AND ALLOW FOR A
LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AT 500MB THE MAIN LOW CENTER
IS OVER NORTH EASTERN SIBERIA BUT A COLD POCKET NEAR THE MCGRATH
REGION INDICATES THE TROUGH IS INTENSIFYING AND DEVELOPING A
SECONDARY LOW CENTER.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
WELL.  THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND COMBINING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX TO CREATE A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. RADAR REFLECTS THIS WELL WITH STRONG ECHOES IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.  EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TODAY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE INCLUDING THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT
THE SMOKE THAT PERVADED THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
YESTERDAY.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY PASSED
THROUGH AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR.  MORNING FOG IS A
LIKELIHOOD ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE MARINE
LAYER ONSHORE.  AREAS OF SMOKE WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA NICE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING MORE LOW STRATUS AND
RAIN.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT IS
JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW THE WHITES OF ITS EYES ON THE SATELLITE.  THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT YET AFFECTING THE ALASKA REGION BUT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIND AND RAIN.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWS THAT ALL MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR.  HOWEVER THE ETA AND THE ECMWF ARE MOVING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MUCH MORE
RAPIDLY THAN THE GFS AND THE UKMET.  GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS KEEPING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE LAST
MODEL RUN.  THEREFORE GFS IS THE MODEL OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON
MONDAY...REACHING WESTERN ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WESTERN ALASKA CAN EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS STRONG FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  IN SUMMARY...A RAINY WEEK FOR ALL ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONE 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** AUG 05