Small Craft Advisory 650, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT SAT AUG 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL INITIALIZED WELL AND FORECAST TRENDS
APPEARS TO THE MOST REASONABLE.

500MB...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE 5 WAVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/BRISTOL
BAY THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND COPPER
RIVER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THESE AREAS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AS
VORTEX OVER EAST RUSSIA DROPS SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP MOIST SW FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND TONIGHT AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SUNDAY.
SW FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND IS BRIEFLY DISRUPTED SUN/EARLY MON AS WEAK
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH BRISTOL BAY/SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SURFACE EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. GREATEST INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...SO THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THAT
REGION. MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS RAINS INTO SW ALASKA THIS EVENING AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/COPPER RIVER SUN AND MONDAY. BRIEF BREAKS LIKELY
ON MON WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE. THEN BACK INTO THE MOIST SW FLOW MON
NIGHT/TUE.

.SURFACE WEST...
SMOKE SHOULD START BREAKING UP SOME AS MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS RAINS TO
MUCH OF SW ALASKA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE BREAK IN RAIN WITH RIDGE MOVING
INTO AREA SUN. DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MON AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING RAINS BACK TO WEST ALASKA MON.  EXPECT
MAX SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER THE ALEUTIANS/AK PEN WITH THIS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST PACKAGE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 05