Small Craft Advisory 647, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OK...AS WELL AS...SYNOPTIC
TRENDS.

500MB...TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTERS OVER THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA AND THE GULF MOVES EAST. RIDGE OVER THE WEST AK COAST SHIFTS
EAST AND FLATTENS TONIGHT. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE NEAR EASTERN RUSSIA
MOVES TO ALONG 150W SAT AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS OVER THE COPPER RIVER
SAT NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL FROM THE EAST BERING SEA TO OVER
THE CENTRAL MAINLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND.

SURFACE EAST...MAIN GULF CENTER IS RETROGRADING NW AND MAINTAINING
INTENSITY. EXPECT CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTH. STRATUS AND FOG LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE BACK TONIGHT.
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOWS SHIFT
WESTERLY.

SURFACE WEST...SMOKE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR THE DELTA ZONE SHOULD
EXPIRE LATER TODAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW MOVING FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN MORNING
MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SETS UP BRISK SW FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE AK PEN SUN AND
MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 05