Small Craft Advisory 640, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE AUG 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. STRATUS STILL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND ALONG THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES TO THE
COAST. PLENTY OF SMOKE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
HOWEVER...LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHING SMOKE AND FOG
OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING FRONT. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE STARTING TO LIFT IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THERMAL
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL INITIATE ANY MOISTURE TO POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL MEAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHILE MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND BRISTOL BAY WILL MEAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW TO PUSH INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FARTHER INLAND AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST WILL BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ALSO PUSHES THE THERMAL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THE WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONT TO GALE
FORCE DUE TO TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EAST WEST ORIENTED
GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. JET ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TO PULL THE LOW IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THERMAL LOW TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SPARKING SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY.

LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. AIR MASS RELATIVELY STABLE FRIDAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE MAINLAND AND DEFINITELY SATURDAY WITH A
JET MAX DIVING SOUTH OVER THE STATE.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A LOW WORKS INTO THE BERING
SEA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND FLATTENING THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN AUG 05