Small Craft Advisory 600, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON AUG 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...UPPER LEVEL TROF...
AS OF 12Z THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LINE EXTENDS FROM
FAIRBANKS TO WHITTIER PER META INITIALIZATION. THE TROF AXIS
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TODAY MOST AREAS EAST OF THE TROF
LINE. AREAS OF FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND. AREAS OF COASTAL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...993 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY...
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PRESSURE. MARINE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD GRAZES THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND
SPREADS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. RAIN REACHES THE MAINLAND
TOMORROW. WETTING RAINS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND...THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY.

...THERMAL LOW...
WEAK THERMAL LOW PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AIRMASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE WED NIGHT. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY.

...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN.

...WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW...
MINOR 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPS 180 NM WEST OF SHEMYA BY MON AFTERNOON
THEN STRENGTHEN TO 1005 MB 200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB AUG 05