Small Craft Advisory 590, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT ARCTIC OCEAN. BANDS OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRETTY GOOD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER SUSITNA VALLEY. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...AND
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE EXITING LOW.
LESSER CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PLOD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AS IT BECOMES THE STEERING LOW FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL ROUND IT TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
MAINLAND ALASKA. UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCES OF A DRY WEEKEND ARE
DIMINISHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND (IN
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SECTION OF CANADA) WILL MOVE WEST INTO
ALASKA BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WILL PUT SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ON SATURDAY (AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SUNDAY). THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A LOW THAT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS ON THE WEEKEND
WILL BE SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY TUESDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JUL 05