Small Craft Advisory 576, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN LOW IS NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND HEADING TO
SOUTH OF SAND POINT WHERE WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK LOW NEAR SHEMYA WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MERGING INTO
MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MON MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE KODIAK AREA BY WED MORNING. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA MON.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THROUGH WED. THE NET RESULT OF ALL THIS IS EXPECT THE FRONT NOW ALONG
THE BERING SEA COAST TO DISSIPATE IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH MON.
THE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE ALEUTIANS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS THE MARITIME AIR SETTLES IN.

OVER THE SOUTH MAINLAND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE WRANGELLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND THUS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT AND INTENSIFIES A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST PUSH FROM
THE SOUND INTO TURNAGAIN ARM, THOUGH WE DONT EXPECT THE WIND TO
EXCEED 35 MPH. BY SUN NIGHT THE MOISTURE WRAP FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF
SAND POINT WILL MOVE IN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE REGIONS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE KENAI COOK INLET SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM JUL 05