Small Craft Advisory 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED JUL 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL COMPARISON...THE UKMET ETA AND GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW APPROACHING ALEUTIANS AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE LOW RAPIDLY EAST AND THEN SOUTH
OF 50N FRI AND SAT.  THE GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW TO NEAR ADAK BY
LATE FRI.  THE ETA TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

SYNOPSIS AND WEATHER DISCUSSION...A LOW NEAR THE NORTH SLOPE WILL
FORCE THE INTERIOR THERMAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD OVER COOK INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TODAY.  THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THE REST OF WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST TODAY
THROUGH SAT.

A FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN FROM THE NORTH THU BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR AND ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE.

RAIN AND WIND GUSTING TO 55MPH WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING
THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH JUL 05