Small Craft Advisory 535, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON JUL 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - WEAK 6-7 WAVE SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAJOR UPPER LOWS SOUTH
OF THE GULF AND NEAR BANKS ISLAND AND A WEAK BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE DUE TO A
MODERATE ZONAL JET AT 250 MB FROM THE SOUTH END OF KAMCHATKA ALMOST
TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. LIGHTNING IS GOING OFF ALL OVER THE K-VALLEY
AND JUST GOT STARTED IN THE COPPER BASIN 2030Z. THE OLD DEFORMATION
AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE COPPER BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED
TO A CLOUD BAND OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SATELLITE PIX REVEAL A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN PACD AND PASN THIS
MORNING WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT WEAKENED THE N/NW FETCH OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BEHIND A 998 MB SFC LOW EAST OF BUOY 46066 AT 18Z.

AER FORECASTS - THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS
REALLY WEAK SO WE ARE COUNTING ON SEA BREEZES TO RULE. AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF SITKA TUE NIGHT THIS RIDGE IS GONE ALTOGETHER
WITH A VERY WEAK LOW NEAR PACV 12Z WED. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE W ALONG 60N ON WED. THERE IS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN THIS WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO THURSDAY.

ALU FORECASTS - ANOTHER MAJOR UPPER LOW DEVELOPS BACK OVER THE
PRIBILOFS BY 18Z TUE WHICH CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE JET ALONG 50N OR
SO. THE PATTERN IS SOOOO PROGRESSIVE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
180 RAPIDLY AND EXTENDS EAST ALONG 60N BY 18Z WED. AN OLD TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SW LATER ON WED
WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST FOR W AND NW WIND FOR MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA WED. THE WESTERN LOW DEVELOPS TO 994 MB AS PER THE GFS-190 WHICH
MAY DRIVE SOME GALES IN THE FAR WEST AGAINST THE SURFACE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JUL 05