Small Craft Advisory 523, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE THROUGH THU ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN COOK INLET AND FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WESTWARD TO BRISTOL
BAY AND THE Y-K DELTA.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE TODAY AND MOVED THE LOWER LEVEL
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH BUT THEY REGENERATE THE STRONG THERMAL
INSTABILITY WED. LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO HOVER FROM -4 TO -9 AND
CAPES ARE STILL HIGH RANGING FROM 1200 TO 1600. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOW AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS. THERE IS AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE KUSKOKWIM BAY INTO COOK INLET BY THU. THIS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE FLARE UPS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM BAY TODAY
AND EVENTUALLY OVER COOK INLET THU AND FRI.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TODAY IS IN THE WEST AS A 50 KT JET STREAK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE AXIS OF THIS JET
COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SET UP THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ON
THE BORDER OF 151..155..AND 161. AGAIN..STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. ANY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS FIRE WX
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM AS RH THERE CONTINUES TO HOVER
IN THE MID 20S. WILL KEEP UP THE RED FLAG WARNING AS A RESULT.

IN THE ALEUTIANS..A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING PULLING IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING..151.

RW JUN 05