Small Craft Advisory 499, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI JUN 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN AFFECTING OUT GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA IS BEING CHANGED BY
A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE EXIT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PABE. THIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. ALL PROGS -WHICH ARE ACCEPTED- FORECAST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AT 500 MB WILL BE OVER PACV BY 12Z SAT WITH THE
FRONT OVER KODIAK. THE MAJOR UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY 12Z SAT. THE JET BECOMES SE OVER PAHO
BY 00Z SUN BUT THE MODEL SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS SUSPICIOUSLY SHOW
LITTLE WIND. THE GFS-190 FORECASTS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 165W OR SO
BY 12Z MON THAT BUILDS FOR WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND A
SOUTHERLY REGIME OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JUN 05