Small Craft Advisory 496, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - OMEGA TYPE PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
WITH THE MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A CLOSED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR. DYING UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN K-VALLEY BUT THE AIRMASS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE DUE TO
STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THE MAJOR UPPER LOW IS DRIVING A SW JET OF
140 KT WITH AN EXIT NEAR UNALASKA. THIS SURGE IS THE PATTERN CHANGE
THAT IS UPCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB LOW 12Z NEAR ADAK IS A WIND MAKER TODAY FOR
ZONE 181. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AS OF 19Z.

AER FORECASTS - FIRST, WE ARE LOOKING FOR CBS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SUSITNA AND COPPER BASINS AS PER INDICIES AND MODEL FORECASTS. THE
PATTERN CHANGE IS FOR SOUTH FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN OVER ANCHORAGE BY 00Z
SAT. THIS WILL FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH WILL START A TURNAGAIN WIND AND SOME SE FOR ZONES 101 AND 111.
THIS WIND WILL BE IN DRY AIR UNTIL THE RAIN CAN GET THERE LATER SAT
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A MOIST WEEKEND THEN WESTERLIES ALOFT ON MONDAY.

ALU FORECASTS - SOUTH FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 18Z FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXPECT FOR IN THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD BE WET STARTING FRI AND SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT
AS THE PRESENT FRONT REFORMS WITH UPPER SUPPORT. THE JET BECOMES DUE
SOUTH OVER PABE 00Z SAT AND PAKN 12Z SAT. LOOK FOR A SURFACE RIDGE TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY 18Z SAT AS
PER ALL THE MODELS AS THE MAJOR UPPER CENTER REFORMS NEAR ANADYR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 181.
MARINE...GALES 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JUN 05