Small Craft Advisory 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT SUN JUN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.

500MB...OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND AS LOW CENTERS CUT-OFF SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA GULF AND BERING SEA. BLOCK SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK.
BEFORE BLOCK SETS UP...WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION LIKELY THE GENERAL
RULE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL...AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARMING FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS
TO BE TUE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 10-16C ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN. LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 ARE FORECAST OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL...AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. IN THE
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO COPPER RIVER
BASIN/SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

LOW OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHIFTS TO THE AK PEN ON MONDAY. DEVELOPING
NORTH PAC LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. EXPECT GALES OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE CURRENT MARINES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC JUN 05