Small Craft Advisory 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
150 PM ADT TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A FRONT WORKING NORTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS
SPREADING CLOUDS AND TURNING FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND. THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PUSHED NORTH TODAY
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL. WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF
COASTS...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PICKING UP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WOULD
MEAN A MODERATE TO STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK RIVER WIND. SOME
GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE COPPER RIVER LEADING TO SEVERE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...LOW TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE WEAK HIGH IN
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ARE MODERATE.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HITTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALSO
BRINGING MODERATE WINDS. THE FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN JET SUPPORT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BASICALLY GETS SWALLOWED INTO A
BIG LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SATURDAY. THIS COMES ABOUT BY A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET MAX. THIS TO BECOME A STRONG FRONT THAT
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JET LEAVES
THIS FEATURE LEAVING IT TO SPIN IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE PARENT
LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AS THE LOW REMAINS IN THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE NOW
CONSOLIDATED LOW IN BRISTOL BAY MOVES SOUTH OF KODIAK SUNDAY. THE LOW
WHICH MOVES THIS SATURDAY INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN BRINGS A FRONT
WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS
IMPACTING THE COAST AND SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED GAPS. MOST
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE UP
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
WILL MEAN PERSISTENT SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT BIG SURGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT MOVE TOO FAR NORTH AS IT
LOSES ALL JET SUPPORT BY FRIDAY FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION. THE TWO LOWS
CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT RIDGE ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WOULD MEAN A PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND...MODERATE
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 141 THIS AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JN JUN 05