Small Craft Advisory 463, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...MAJOR UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO MOVE INTO DUTCH HARBOR AREA TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
STALL OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO KODIAK ISLAND AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE JET STREAK DIMINISHING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW WEAKENS
AS A RESULT OF BECOMING STACKED AND LOSS OF JET SUPPORT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
ALSO ACTS TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL BE WIPED OUT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS MOVES CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS THERMAL
TROUGH IS PUSHED NORTH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EAST AND
DEVELOPS A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW ROLLS THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LOW AND PULLS IT ALONG. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL BE MODERATE...NEAR SMALL CRAFT. ONLY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME OVER MUCH OF THE CHAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. JET WITH THE SECONDARY FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
140KT. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST
BERING SEA WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD FACILITATE A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN AT THIS
TIME WITH A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE LOW IS NOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE
AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS. IT IS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 OVERHEAD. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AS LOW
IN THE ALEUTIANS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TOMORROW AND AGAIN ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE REINFORCED FRONT FROM THE LOW IN THE ALEUTIAN TO PUSH
NORTH IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND FORCES THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA.
RAIN AND WINDS TO WORK THROUGH THE GULF AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH THE FRONT. A MODERATE AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW IN THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONGER
FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. WITH THE MOIST FLOW...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
INLAND. WILL SEE SOME STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY WITH EACH FRONT...BUT
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO WOULD EXPECT STRONG DOWN INLET AND
SHELIKOF WINDS WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WEAKENS INTO THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND LEAVES THE LOW IN THE GULF VERTICALLY STACKED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JUN 05