Small Craft Advisory 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT FRI JUN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR 150W. THREE LOW CENTERS ALONG THIS AXIS. ONE IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA...ONE OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA...AND THE MAIN LOW NEAR
50N. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN BERING INTO CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA. A CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE MOVEMENT
OF THESE PROPERTIES IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY NCEP MODELS AND THE
UKMET.

THE LOW OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA TO MEANDER INTO THE SOUND BY TOMORROW
AND REMAIN THERE INTO SUNDAY. COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE
A GOOD SOURCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO SLIDE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY...THIS LOW
WILL DRAW THE LOW NEAR ANCHORAGE INLAND. IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY
WAVE WILL BE CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW OVER EASTERN ALASKA SUNDAY. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL MEAN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
ALASKA SUNDAY. THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO PROGRESS EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVING
EAST...WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE NEAR 160W SATURDAY AND MOVE TO 150W
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW
IN THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BECOMES STACKED BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING MOISTURE MOST LIKELY OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
WESTWARD.

IN THE DETAILS...THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND STRETCH INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. AS THE LOW BECOMES
STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT WEAKENS.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
EXCEPT ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JUN 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM ADT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             10 N PALMER             61.74N 149.11W
06/03/2005  0.25 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF PALMER REPORTED 1/4 INCH
            HAIL BEGINNING AT 345PM. HAIL WAS STILL FALLING AT THE
            TIME OF THE OBSERVATION.

&&

AB