Small Craft Advisory 447, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 012342
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR THU AFTERNOON THEN RAPIDLY MOVE EAST INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A 997 MB WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO 420 NM SOUTH OF ADAK FRI AFTERNOON. A 1021 MB HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-021400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-021400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED AND VIRTUALLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINED CENTERED OVER ADAK THIS MORNING. WEAK TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
AKPEN AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. FURTHER EAST...ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ON COASTAL MOUNTAINSIDES. SOME PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO BLEED
ACROSS THE KENAI AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPINNING THE
ALEUTIAN LOW IN PLACE BEFORE BEGINNING TO BRING IT EAST. SOME
DEVIATION OCCURS AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESOETA BRINGING THE LOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH UNCHARACTERISTIC SPEED AND STRENGTH.
THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG. THESE DIFFERENCES
ESSENTIALLY AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF WIND FIELD. THE FORECAST REFLECTS
A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH GFS TIMING AND A BIT MORE
WIND IN THAT AREA.

OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. INLAND...THE
THERMAL TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD CROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THURSDAY.
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE ALEUTIAN TROUGH WHEN IT CROSSES THE KENAI AND ANCHORAGE BOWL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL TROUGH MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS OF SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NEAR MCGRATH.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL KEEP ONSHORE
FLOW AND RAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REST OF THE GULF WHICH WILL
MIGRATE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND A REPEAT OF CURRENT CONDITIONS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 05