Small Craft Advisory 445, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 010013
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 60 NM NORTH OF ADAK
ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFIES TO 982 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI..VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011134
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 110 NM EAST OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL
THEN REMAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
$$

PKZ155-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
$$

PKZ160-020200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
$$

PKZ165-020200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
$$

PKZ180-020200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
$$

PKZ170-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

PKZ171-020200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
$$

PKZ172-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

PKZ175-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
$$

PKZ176-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
$$

PKZ185-020200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
$$

PKZ179-020200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED JUN 1 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON MAY 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

IR SATELLITE THIS AM SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IS EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
300MB JET MAX OF 125KTS REMAINS FAR TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXITING THE
TROUGH...INDICATING THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS JET IS HIGHLY ZONAL IN NATURE AND THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C AT
500MB INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER...BUT
AS THE LOW IS HIGHLY BAROTROPIC DO NOT EXPECT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ALCAN BORDER IN ZONE
141. THERMAL TROUGHING IS ALSO OCCURING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL.
WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND ADDED
INSTABILITY SOME CONVECTION IS A POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE FORM OF TCU FOR ZONES 141 AND 145. CBS ARE PROBABLE FOR ZONE
155 IN THE EVENING.

ZONE 161 AND WEST...AS STATED PREVIOUSLY NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CAUSING LOW STRATUS AND
RAIN ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT AREAS TO THE DIRECT
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE CLOUDY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ALL
MODELS HANDLING THE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS WELL.  ETA IS SLIGHTLY
PREFERABLE OVER LAND AS IT IS PICKING UP THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR A LITTLE BETTER.  IN THE LONG RANGE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FILLING THE LOW AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE THAN THE ETA.  UPSHOT IS
ETA IS PREFERRED OVER LAND AND GFS OUT WEST.

EXTENDED FORECAST...PROGS INDICATE THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND
CHANGE POSITION SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  BY DAY 5 A SECONDARY
LOW WILL FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.  WESTERN AREAS CAN EXPECT
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND FOG AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...RFW 141.

LW/JC MAY 05