Small Craft Advisory 429, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE MAY 24 2005

.NWP MODELS...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS EVENING. UKMET HANDLES THE
MULTIPLE ROTATING LOWS IN THE BERING A LITTLE BETTER. GFS IS A CLOSE
SECOND.

.CONVECTION AND STABILITY...
RADAR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIED DOWN OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. BEST CAPE
VALUES NORTHEAST OF SLEETMUTE. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES 141
145 151. ZONES 155 AND 161 INCREASINGLY UNDER A MARINE
INFLUENCE...SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST NOT BREAKING UP UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE BERING COAST PROGGED TO BREAK
DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPTICS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON.
A WEAK 1001 MB LOW 400 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL DISSIPATE 200
NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 46N
170E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK WED NIGHT.
PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS FROM DUTCH HARBOR WESTWARD MAY RECEIVE OVER
A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL REACH ADAK BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE YUKON
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 KTS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 5B 6A 6B 8 12B 14 15 STORMS 12A 12A1
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAY 05