Small Craft Advisory 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM ADT TUE MAY 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS LOOKS BEST OUT WEST AND THE ETA IN THE EAST.

.EAST(AER)...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL LOCAL. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT SAT IMAGE
SHOWS ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS ON THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SIDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THESE
REGIONS. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN AT 850MB. EXCEPT FOR
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...MOST LOCALS SHOULD BE MORE STABLE WED.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE OVER CANADA AND MOVE IT
TO OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLY THURSDAY.

.WEST(ALU)...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
NORTH TONIGHT AND WED. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE WITH COOLER 850MB
TEMPERATURES. DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW WELL SW OF THE ALEUTIANS DROPS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 980S AS IT CROSSES THE CHAIN EARLY WED. THIS LOW
BECOMES STACKED WITH THE UPPER CENTER AND QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF
ADAK WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND TO THE AK PEN/NEAR SW AK COAST THU AM.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST
ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GALES ELSEWHERE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 5B 6A 6B 8 12B 14 15 STORMS 12A 12A1
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 05