Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED JAN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE PERSISTS FROM CALIFORNIA TO EASTERN RUSSIA
THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LOWS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE MOST OF ALASKA IS COVERED WITH A VERY COLD
AND DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS
BEING ENHANCED BY COLD OUTFLOW THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN THE EROSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE A 180 KT JET ALONG 35N...THE RIDGE WILL FORCE A
SERIES OF PINWHEELING LOWS TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH FLOW CURRENTLY
IN THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS AS IF IT IS GOING TO STAY THERE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY AS SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND
CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING ALONG
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE MAIN LOW OUT WEST MOVES
SOUTH OF ADAK AND THAT IS FAR ENOUGH TO SET UP EAST FLOW WITH SNOW
FOR KODIAK.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES A WEST COAST RIDGE AND PINWHEELING
LOWS ARE CENTERED SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THIS WILL SEND PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST...BUT NO FARTHER AS DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING COPPER RIVER DELTA
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 2B1 3A 4 8 12A 14
         GALE WARNING AREAS 5B 6A 6B 8 15
         STORM WARNING AREA 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 05