Small Craft Advisory 400, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT TUE MAY 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. UKMET/GFS FORECAST
TRENDS ARE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST 36 HOURS AND BEYOND.

.EAST...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. VIS SAT
PICTURE SHOWS STRATUS RETREATING FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
SPREADING INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO MAKE SOME
HEADWAY IN TO THE INLET TONIGHT...BUT EXTENT SHOULD NOT GO MUCH
FURTHER THEN THE NORTHERN INLET. LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER
THE NE PAC WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAND POINT THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT
INCREASING EAST FLOW OVER THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF FRONTAL
TROUGH. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ON SHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THU
AFTERNOON.

.WEST...
.THERMAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO OVER
THE DELTA. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING IN THESE ZONES THIS
MORNING COMBINED WITH WEAK UP LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERMAL THROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY...SO WOULD EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. GENERAL
MOISTURE OVER SW ALASKA INCREASES THU AS WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF. GENERAL LOW COMPLEX HOLDS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR BELOW MIN SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 05