Small Craft Advisory 396, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT MON MAY 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS REASONABLE.
GFS OVERALL WILL BE USED OUT WEST.

EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WED. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT GENERAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEABREEZES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING WEST
TOWARD KODIAK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRATUS MAY MOVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD TO COOK INLET ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING GENERAL CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST/SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY.

.WEST...LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SPREADS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH. EXCEPT FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECT CONDITIONS BE REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY WITH FAIR SKIES AS THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH WED. A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AK PEN WILL BRING GENERAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TO THE
SW MAINLAND THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 12A,12A1,13A AND 13B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 05