Small Craft Advisory 388, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT FRI MAY 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS REASONABLE.
EAST
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS BUILDING WEST
AND SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE LOW TO SOUTH AND
UPPER SUPPORT MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SAT...HOWEVER SOME LOCALS AROUND THE REGION
COULD START WITH AM STRATUS/FOG.

WEST
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SW MAINLAND WEAKENS SATURDAY AND
DISSIPATES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER..
E/SE EXPOSURES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVER SW ALASKA COULD BE A CONCERN SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE AK PEN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO SMALL CRAFT AND WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE BERING SEA HAS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER
AND THIS LIKELY WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEXT
LOW COMPLEX TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 43N 168E.
CURRENT FORECAST MOVES CENTER TO NEAR 46N 173E AT 992 MB SUNDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SOME EASTERLY GALES ON PACIFIC SIDE OF ALEUTIANS
WITH APPROACH OF CENTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 05