Small Craft Advisory 376, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT SUN MAY 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY WITH PATTERN
SHIFT OCCURING. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR STILL
EXPECTED TO RECENTER OVER SIBERIA BY MON MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH OFF THE POLE AND A LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTH OF COLD BAY TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TIL TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DATELINE NEAR 45N AND ABSORBS THE LOW
NEAR COLD BAY. HOWEVER...A PIECE OF THIS LOW WORKS NORTH INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50N 160W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT FEATURES THEN BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH A UPPER LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 50N 160W. A RESULTANT RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

SURFACE SOUTHCENTRAL...RECORD HIGHS A MEMORY AS CLOUD COVER AND
BUBBLE OF HIGH 850 TEMPS WEST OF THE AREA. SMALL STREAM ADVISORY IN
THE MID SUSITNA VALLEY TO END TOMORROW AS END TO RECORD TEMPS
RESULTING IN A SLOWER SNOW MELT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL SOUTH OF A
TALKEETNA TO GULKANA LINE. THIS WAVE TO PASS BY THIS EVENING WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY FROM PROXIMITY OF A
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF. FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS BACK
MOISTURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AS
WELL. DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS DO BEGIN TO PICK UP THURSDAY AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND HEADED FOR THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY.

SURFACE SOUTHWEST AND ALEUTIAN...LOTS OF STRATUS FROM THE PRIBILOFS
WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH. THE STRATUS TO PUSH FARTHER WEST AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE EASTERLY WITH THE HIGH RE-CENTERING OVER SIBERIA.
INSTABILITY THAT IS CREATING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS EVENING AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THERE INTO TOMORROW.
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW TO
REMAIN THERE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED MOSTLY BY A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF CHAIN TUESDAY. A PIECE OF IT MOVES INLAND AND WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE RESULTANT MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MID WEEK AND OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH
SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH 151
         SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY CENTRAL 145.
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAY 05