Small Craft Advisory 375, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021017
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA + BRISTOL BAY + THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA + BRISTOL BAY + THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 MB 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MON MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO
1010 MB AND DRIFT TO 100 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY TUE MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING. A 1005 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA MON MORNING WILL DEEPEN TO 992 MB AND MOVE TO 750 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL REACH 750 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AT 986
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-030200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAY 2 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT SUN MAY 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY WITH PATTERN
SHIFT OCCURING. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR STILL
EXPECTED TO RECENTER OVER SIBERIA BY MON MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH OFF THE POLE AND A LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTH OF COLD BAY TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TIL TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DATELINE NEAR 45N AND ABSORBS THE LOW
NEAR COLD BAY. HOWEVER...A PIECE OF THIS LOW WORKS NORTH INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50N 160W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT FEATURES THEN BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH A UPPER LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 50N 160W. A RESULTANT RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

SURFACE SOUTHCENTRAL...RECORD HIGHS A MEMORY AS CLOUD COVER AND
BUBBLE OF HIGH 850 TEMPS WEST OF THE AREA. SMALL STREAM ADVISORY IN
THE MID SUSITNA VALLEY TO END TOMORROW AS END TO RECORD TEMPS
RESULTING IN A SLOWER SNOW MELT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL SOUTH OF A
TALKEETNA TO GULKANA LINE. THIS WAVE TO PASS BY THIS EVENING WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY FROM PROXIMITY OF A
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF. FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS BACK
MOISTURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AS
WELL. DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS DO BEGIN TO PICK UP THURSDAY AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND HEADED FOR THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY.

SURFACE SOUTHWEST AND ALEUTIAN...LOTS OF STRATUS FROM THE PRIBILOFS
WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH. THE STRATUS TO PUSH FARTHER WEST AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE EASTERLY WITH THE HIGH RE-CENTERING OVER SIBERIA.
INSTABILITY THAT IS CREATING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS EVENING AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THERE INTO TOMORROW.
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW TO
REMAIN THERE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED MOSTLY BY A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF CHAIN TUESDAY. A PIECE OF IT MOVES INLAND AND WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE RESULTANT MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MID WEEK AND OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH
SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH 151
         SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY CENTRAL 145.
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAY 05