Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE APR 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST INTO ALASKA. AS THIS HIGH MOVES IN...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...THIS WILL CREATE A REX BLOCK OVER THE
ALASKA MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. VERY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT MANY MORE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL FALL THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA. ON MONDAY APRIL 25...ANCHORAGE HIT 64 DEGREES...WHICH IS THE
EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IS HAS EVER BEEN THAT WARM HERE (OLD RECORD 65
DEGREES ON APRIL 30 1976). CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...BUT NOT ENTIRELY ZERO. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO A FEW
LOCATIONS IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY WITH THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIP IN ZONE PACKAGE AS OF
NOW IS FOR KODIAK ISLAND ON THE WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVING WESTWARD MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...A FAIRLY STRONG STORM IS
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND THEN MOVING
INTO THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE REX BLOCK TO THE
EAST...ANY LOWS IN THE AREA ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
ALASKA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT BREAK UNTIL NEXT WEEK. REX
BLOCKS ARE NOTORIOUSLY STABLE. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS ARE
EACH A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON HOW THEY HAVE HANDLED THE DEMISE OF THIS
PATTERN. LOOKING AT OTHER MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES...IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND FOR A WHILE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 5B 6B 8 12A 12A1 12B 13A 14 15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

BL APR 05