Small Craft Advisory 360, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1015 AM ADT SUN APR 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A MONDO UPPER HIGH HAS BUILT OVER NW CANADA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
THE PATTERN SHOWS REAL SIGNS OF SLOW RETROGRESSION WHICH MEANS HOT
AND DRY COMING TO THE ALASKA MAINLAND. A CUTOFF OFF CALIFORNIA FORCES
A SECOND RIDGE AXIS ALONG 155W OR SO. MEANWHILE THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
COMPLEX OVER THE POLE HAS AN EXTENSION OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA DOWN
TO A MAJOR UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. THIS IS OVER A 974 MB LOW
OVER KISKA AT 12Z WITH A STRONG FRONT INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONT HAS TO SLOW UP THEN DISSIPATE AS PER ALL MODELS DUE TO THE
BLOCK THEN RETRO. BY 00Z WED A JET SET UP FROM WEST OF HAWAII TO THE
BERING STRAIT TO BUILD UP THE UPPER HIGH EVEN MORE. THE GFS-190 SHOWS
ALMOST UNHEARD OF HEIGHTS IN THE 580S OVER ALASKA THIS WEEK.

AER FORECASTS - THERE WILL BE SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL: 1) DRYING FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS. WIND AND FUEL
DRYNESS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. 2) POSSIBLE RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED. 3) VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THIS WILL
RELEASE LOTS OF LIQUID WATER INTO COOK INLET DRAINAGES PARTICULARLY
THE SUSITNA WHERE THE SNOW PACK REMAINS THICK. RFC IS WATCHING THAT
CLOSELY. MOST PEOPLE WILL CELEBRATE THE SUMMER WEATHER BUT THE ABOVE
CONSIDERATIONS WILL KEEP THIS AN INTERESTING WEEK.

ALU FORECASTS - A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AKPENN AND POSSIBLY THE K-DELTA WED. EXPECT
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WIND AS EACH FRONT HOLDS UP IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AREA. BY THU THE BLOCK WILL BE SOOO STRONG THAT SHORTWAVES
AND FRONTS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 131 185 187 195.
MARINE...GALES 170 171 172 175 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE YET.

JC APR 05