Small Craft Advisory 348, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1100 AM ADT THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - 964 MB MONDO STORM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL PASS JUST E OF UNALASKA AROUND NOON. A MAJOR UPPER
LOW SUPPORTS THIS STORM AS PART OF A 5-WAVE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG 150W AT 12Z WAS MITIGATED BY A CUTOFF LOW OFF KSFO. SEVERAL
SPIRAL WRAPS ON THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MATURE.
THE JET AT 250 MB IS SSW APPROXIMATELY ALONG 165W THIS MORNING
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE AKPENN. THE CORE SPEED IS AROUND 150KT
NEAR 41N 165W. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM THE SW WITH LOTS OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

AER FORECASTS - THE GFS-190 IS PREFERRED AS THE DEEPEST MODEL WITH
THE STORM WHICH WILL SET UP LOTS OF WIND AND A DANDY CHINOOK FOR
ANCHORAGE. WE EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING FOR THE COOK INLET AREA
BUT A LONG FETCH FIRE HOSE FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO SAT
PLUS WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB FOR EXTRA LIFT.

ALU FORECASTS - DITTO ON THE GFS-190 OUT WEST EXCEPT THAT THE MODEL
PROBABLY HAS OVERDONE THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT. THIS IS A WARM CORE
SYSTEM WITH P-TYPE AS RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS THE PRIBILOFS. WE UPDATED
FOR MORE WIND AROUND UNALASKA AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. ONE WORRY IS ENUF
WIND FORECASTED FOR THE LAND STATIONS ALONG THE SW COAST. METHINKS
CAPE NEWENHAM WILL SHOW NEAR WARNING WIND 70 MPH. THE TRACK LOOKS
CERTAIN TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WEAKENING TO 974 MB BY 12Z FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 181 185.
MARINE...HURC 170. STORM 138 155 160 165 180.
         GALES 130 132 140 150 171 172 179 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC APR 05