Small Craft Advisory 281, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST THU MAR 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...5000M CENTER OVER OF WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS AND
MOVES TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON. 5050M CENTER FORMING OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA DROPS SOUTH TO OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND LATE FRI
AND REMAINS QSTNRY THRU MON NIGHT. RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS MORNING IS PINCHED N/S AS TROUGH TO WEST ELONGATES E/SE. 5040M
CENTER NEAR KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND WEAKENS LATE FRI. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AT THIS TIME(FRI) ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN 160E-160W. FLOW IS DISRUPTED AS SHORT WAVE
MOVING FROM KAMCHATKA SAT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO ALONG 165W SUN.

.SURFACE EAST...ETA LOOKS REASONABLE AND IN GENERAL WILL BE USED FOR
FORECASTY PACKAGES. A 974 MB LOW EAST OF KODIAK IS STACKED WITH UPPER
CENTER AND SHOULD BEGIN TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF AND WEAKEN.
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WITH STRONG
UPPER SHORT WAVE. THIS SECONDARY CENTER WILL BE WEAKER THAN CURRENT
LOW AND SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS CENTER WILL
HOLD IN A WEAKENED FORM WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT. THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BECOME RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE SAT. IN THE SHORT
TERM...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE THIS
MORNING AS OCCLUDED FRONT TRACKS WEST AND SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND FAIRLY
INTENSE SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON SAT TO EAST WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES AROUND THE ZONE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. REMAINDER
OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH WEAKENING LOW OVER THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. THINK
GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.

.SURFACE WEST...GFS/UKMET MODEL MOST REASONABLE WESTERN AREAS AND
WILL USED FOR FORECAST PACKAGES. MESO ETA IN GENERAL WILL BE USED
FOR THE SW MAINLAND. 970S OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TO SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS SAT AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
TROUGH ELONGATES E-SE UNDER STRONG JET. TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS NEAR
UNIMAK PASS FRI AND TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. EXPECT FRONTAL TROUGH
TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AK PEN FRI MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS TRIPLE FRONT
CARRIES BRUNT OF ENERGY SOUTH. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH SAT. SNOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BE ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING CANCELLED ZONE 171.
MARINE...GALES 3A..5AB..12AB..13AB..14.. AND 15

RMC MAR 05