Small Craft Advisory 276, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE MAR 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW SYSTEMS WAITING IN THE WINGS OVER THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AND MODEL CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. NAM DID NOT HANDLE THIS
LAST LOW UP THE INLET WELL. GFS AS USUAL SPREAD THE PRECIP AROUND TOO
MUCH. BUT GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE RIGHT NOW FOR THE NEXT TWO LOWS
THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE A SHORT BREAK TODAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A DEEP TROUGH WITH PRETTY STRONG VORT MOVES
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY AHEAD OF THE POLAR LOW NORTH OF
BETHEL IT WILL PRECEDE SOME STRONG CAA. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. BUT SOUTHCENTRAL..ESPECIALLY WESTERN
PARTS..WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING. A LOW FORMING SOUTH OF SAND
POINT TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL..BUT
TOO SOON TO CALL YET. FOR NOW..KODIAK..ILIAMNA AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
WILL PICK UP SOME SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM BY WED AFTERNOON. THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL GET SNOW SHOWERS BUT INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

THE MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND INTO PWS BY THU AND FRI.

IN THE ALEUTIANS...A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL GENERATE
MODERATE STRENGTH WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AKPENN TODAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE IN BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED THROUGH FRI AS
THE POLAR LOW ALSO DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE EASTERN BERING.

A SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA THU
INTENSIFYING THE PRECIP AND WINDS THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND MOVES EASTWARD INTO FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 6B 12A1 12B 13B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 3A 3C 4 4A 6A 8 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 05