Small Craft Advisory 272, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST MON MAR 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOW MOVING UP COOK INLET WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING AND FEEDING INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP
THE INLET. HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TO
COINCIDE WITH THE ONE FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE CONVERGENCE DOES
NOT LEND ITSELF TO A BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. IN
FACT...SOME AREAS OF THE ANCHORAGE ZONE...AROUND EAGLE RIVER AND
BIRCHWOOD...MAY NOT SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE KNIK AND
GOOSE BAY AREA WILL SEE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW TODAY AS WELL. OUTSIDE
OF SOUTH CENTRAL...SNOW WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE KAMCHATKA
AREA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MAINLY ON THE BERING SIDE
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST AS IT IS BEING SHOVED BY THE POLAR LOW
DROPPING INTO THE BERING STRAIT. THIS IS BRINGING SNOW TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY.

POLAR LOW TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TOMORROW
EVENING. REMNANT OF THE KAMCHATKA LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS
TODAY TO HELP CARVE OUT TROUGH WITH THE POLAR LOW NEAR 165W. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DRAG THE POLAR LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE POLAR LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF AND A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OUT
OF A KAMCHATKA LOW. THE FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA
BUT DOES NOT BREAK IT DOWN. THE ENERGY FROM THE FRONT GETS SPLIT WITH
PART OF IT FEEDING BACK INTO THE MAIN LOW AND THE OTHER PORTION
MOVING INTO THE POLAR LOW OVER THE GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO SWING INTO THE GULF
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND MODERATE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM. THE LOW IN COOK INLET TO MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP IN THE GULF BUT HEADS RIGHT TO THE
PANHANDLE TOMORROW. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH NEAR 165W TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 3A 3C 4 4A 6A 8 14
         GALE 3A 3C 4
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAR 05