Small Craft Advisory 247, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON MAR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - A STRONG UPPER HIGH HAS MOVED NORTH WITH THE CENTER NEAR
WRANGEL ISLAND WHILE A MAJOR UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER KING SALMON
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RESULTS ARE A 1059 MB HIGH NORTH OF DEAD-
HORSE WITH A 990 MB LOW COMPLEX IN THE GULF. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIVE
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMAIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SW
COAST. A FRONT IS DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY FROM THE BARRENS TO SITKA
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME STRONG MARINE WIND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS FRONT. SNOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE N GULF COAST. HOMER GOT HIT THE WORST WITH
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY AROUND 1/4 MILE. THE JET STILL UNDERCUTS OUT
SYSTEM FROM ASIA TO SAN DIEGO BUT ALSO THERE IS 80 KNOT FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

AER FORECASTS - YESTERDAYS 12Z ETA DID A GOOD JOB IN PREDICTING THE
FOCUS OF ENERGY IN THE WESTERN GULF WHICH ALLOWED THE VERY STRONG
WIND IN COOK INLET AND NEAR THE MATANUSKA. WE PREFER THE 12Z ETA RUNS
TODAY OVER LAND THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH MOVES THE MAIN SURFACE LOW A
LITTLE SLOWER INTO BRISTOL BAY BY 18Z TUE. THIS SETS UP ONSHORE FLOW
AT LOWER LEVELS FOR THE EAST AND A TURNAGAIN WIND ADVISORY. PRECIP IS
THE BIG QUESTION. BY 12Z TUE A SW JET SETS UP OVER THE GULF WITH A
PRETTY GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE. BY 00Z THU THE JET IS A LITTLE WEAKER
BUT OVER COOK INLET AS SSW WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE MODEL. MOS
TEMPS ARE WARMER FOR RAIN BUT THE MODEL SHOWS -6C AT 850 MB STILL WAY
DOWN IN THE GULF AT THAT TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO ISSUE FORECASTS WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SNOW IN THEM FOR THE COOK INLET AREA AND PERHAPS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND STARTING WED.

ALU FORECASTS - SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OVER BRISTOL BAY FOR SNOW THERE TODAY. ALSO THE SC CLOUDS ALL ACROSS
THE BERING ARE GOOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY BY 18Z TUE WITH MORE PRECIP. THIS WILL END THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS TUE NIGHT THERE WILL BE MORE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AS THE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS IN THE BERING AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT NEAR SAND POINT. LOOK FOR LESS WIND WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON WED AND THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111. BLOWING SNOW ADV 121.
         WIND ADV 101 125 131 135 145 155.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 140. GALES 121 125 141 180.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 121 130 138 140 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC MAR 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1041 PM AST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/20/2005  61 MPH                              AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 61 MPH MEASURED AT TEELAND MIDDLE
            SCHOOL

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/20/2005  74 MPH                              AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            74 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE COTTONWOOD PUBLIC SAFETY
            BUILDING IN WASILLA

0530 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/21/2005  81 MPH                              AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 81 MPH MEASURED AT THE COTTONWOOD
            PUBLIC SAFETY BUILDING IN WASILLA. THIS WAS THE HIGHEST
            MAGNITUDE MEASURED FOR THIS WIND EVENT.

&&

AFISH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1041 PM AST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/20/2005  61 MPH                              AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 61 MPH MEASURED AT TEELAND MIDDLE
            SCHOOL

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/20/2005  74 MPH                              AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            74 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE COTTONWOOD PUBLIC SAFETY
            BUILDING IN WASILLA

0530 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
03/21/2005  81 MPH                              AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 81 MPH MEASURED AT THE COTTONWOOD
            PUBLIC SAFETY BUILDING IN WASILLA. THIS WAS THE HIGHEST
            MAGNITUDE MEASURED FOR THIS WIND EVENT.