Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1030 AM AST THU MAR 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - A MAJOR UPPER RIDGE IS OVER SW ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSION TO THE POLE. A MAJOR UPPER LOW IS OVER 46N 169W AT 12Z THU
OVER A 986 MB GALE FORCE CENTER. THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS UP TO 50N AT
18Z WITH A WARM FRONT GONE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. OTHER
THAN 250 MB WINDS AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND 110 KNOTS...A
WESTERLY JET IS CONSISTENT ALONG 30N. A 1030 MB HIGH CELL IS OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS MORNING.

AER FORECASTS - THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ALL FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR PAKN BY 00Z
SAT. THIS SETS UP OFFSHORE FLOW FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. WE
ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE WIND EVENT DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE ALCAN SIDE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS LIKE
VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT N WIND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WILL BLOWING DUST FOR THE REST OF THE AER AREA.

ALU FORECASTS - LOOK FOR THE LOW S OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO WEAKEN
WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SW COAST. SE FLOW
ALOFT AS PER ALL MODELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AKPENN AND ALEUTIANS
FOR A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE N PACIFIC. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER BUILDS NEAR PAKN 00Z SAT FOR A MORE E FLOW ALOFT THERE. A
MAJOR UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP E OF KAMCHATKA FRI WHICH WILL PUSH A
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT. LOOK FOR SECONDARY LOWS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SUN AND BEYOND...BUT THESE WILL REMAIN W OF
180 DUE TO A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG 165W STARTING SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 181 185 187.
MARINE...GALES 155 165 170 172 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC MAR 05