Small Craft Advisory 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI MAR 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THOUGH I STILL PREFER THE
MESO-ETA OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN BECAUSE IT HAS BETTER DETAIL. EITHER
GFS OR MESO-ETA WILL DO OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN.

A 978 MB LOW 100 MILES WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA  AND WEAKEN TO 1012 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. A
974 MB LOW WEST OF JAPAN WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND STRENGTHEN TO 952 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL MOVE INTO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUNDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
MOVING UP THIS FLOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, KENAI PENINSULA,
SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 3B, 5AB, 6AB, 8, 12A.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 05