Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
1200 PM AST THU JAN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

BOTH GFS AND ETA INITIALIZE STRONG HIGH CENTER OVER ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE ETA HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL PRESSURE OF 1051 MILLIBARS AND
HAS BETTER POSITION OF HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA..SO WILL GO WITH
ETA AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH 60 HOURS.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN MAINLAND WITH STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAINING OVER WESTERN ALEUTIANS..NORTHERN ALASKA..AND
PANHANDLE.  THEREFORE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.  THE WINDS OVER THE COPPER RIVER DELTA
WILL REMAIN IN WARNING RANGE..HOWEVER UPPER JET AXIS MOVES SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST TONIGHT..EVEN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING.
WILL KEEP THE THE WARNING UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLITY
OF DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY TOMORROW.

LOW CLOUDS..AREAS OF FOG..AND SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION OBSERVED
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.  EXPECT BRISTOL BAY TO IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES INLAND OVER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BRING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA.  THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THEY DID THIS MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT THE SOUTH.  REST OF
EASTERN DOMAIN GOING TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

WESTERN DOMAIN WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER
WITH GALES..WIND ADVISORIES OVER LAND..FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH 60 HOURS.  RAIN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND WARNING ZONE 135.
MARINE...GALES 2C4 12B 13A 13B 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JWP JAN 05